Major global equity indices keep notching fresh highs. Following a brief geopolitical wobble in March, the S&P 500 just recorded its eighth consecutive weekly gain, marking only the fourth time this has happened in two decades. Better than expected earnings growth is responsible for much of the recent gains. Tech titans, the AI supercycle, and record profit margins are doing the heavy lifting. The market is euphoric but remarkably narrow.

In our March 5th piece, we summarized the initial implications of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We discussed the tail risk of oil moving from pre-war levels (mid-$60s for WTI) to over $100 per barrel due to largescale supply shocks and the potential that energy infrastructure would be targeted. This has become a reality.

War is never easy to write about given the human toll and the rippling fear and uncertainty it creates. But it's our responsibility to cut through the noise, assess what we know, and provide a balanced view of what this geopolitical conflict means for the economy and portfolios.

What happens when the most disruptive technological force in a generation (AI) turns its sights on the very industry that built it? That's the question confronting software investors today.

On Friday, January 30th, President Trump announced his nomination for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) as former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will succeed current Chair Jay Powell, whose term expires in May.

The stock market has delivered another strong year in 2025. The major indices tell a positive story. But beneath the surface, the reality is more nuanced.

Overview: Recent high-profile bankruptcies of companies partially financed with private credit have sparked questions about whether these cases signal broader credit concerns. Many are wondering if they are the “canary in the coal mine.” Our view: these are isolated casualties of bad business fundamentals and excessive leverage, combined with inadequate lender due diligence and fraudulent conduct. A toxic cocktail, to be sure, but not a systemic warning sign. In this Diversif